Frontlines with Robert Sherman: Navigating a fragile ceasefire

If you have been sleeping the last 24 hours, you’ve missed quite a bit.

In just one day, we went from all-out war between Israel and Iran, to an attack on a U.S. base in Qatar, to the announcement of a ceasefire between the Israelis and Iranians by President Donald Trump. 

This morning, the Prime Minister’s Office of Israel gave its first public acknowledgement about the agreement. “In light of having achieved the objectives of the operation, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel agrees to the President's proposal for a bilateral ceasefire," the office said.

Iran’s foreign minister wrote in the early morning hours that “the military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute.”

Yet, we’re not yet all the way home. Here’s where things stand.

On shaky ground

There is an important thing to understand about ceasefires: they are inherently fragile in nature. 

Up until the very moment the ceasefire went into effect, we saw both sides trying to get their last few shots in at one another. Our team had to run in and out of bomb shelters again and again until, quite literally, the last minute. 

That was due to a combination of drones being launched by the Iranians, as well as ballistic missile fire. Many Israelis are very angry to see the images coming out of southern Israel this morning, where there has been a direct hit. 

Just a few hours later, the Israelis have already come out and accused Iran of violating the deal. Iran has denied doing anything of the kind. 

Shortly thereafter, Trump publicly issued a warning on social media to back the Israelis down: “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!  DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.” The planes ultimately turned around, according to the President. 

His comments to reporters while boarding Marine One, expressing clear frustration at the two sides saying he’s “not happy” with Israel or Iran, show just how shaky the situation is.

"We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f*** they are doing, you understand that?" Trump said. 

This is what happens when two sides who to their core do not trust each other try to make a deal. There will be finger-pointing. There will be name-calling. There will be accusations of lying and cheating. 

Judge a ceasefire by its ultimate outcome: does the fighting stop? That’s what matters. We are in “wait and see” territory at the moment. 

The big picture

In the wake of Iran’s attack on U.S. service members in Qatar on Monday, all of the Gulf States came out condemning Iran’s actions: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the U.A.E. and Oman. 

This morning, Qatar’s foreign minister summoned Iran’s ambassador and sent a letter to the U.N. secretary general, further slamming the move and calling Iran’s measure “a flagrant violation of its sovereignty and airspace, as well as of international law and the United Nations Charter.”

The letter goes on to say, “The State of Qatar stressed that it reserves the right to respond directly in a manner equivalent with the nature and scale of this blatant aggression and in accordance with the Charter and international law.”

Saudi Arabia also came out against Iran. In a statement, it called Iran’s attack “an entirely unacceptable act that cannot be justified under any circumstances.”

An important dynamic to understand in the Middle East is the ever-present push and pull between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both are battling for influence over the region. 

Here we’ve seen the Gulf States line up against Iran. Proxies of the Iranian Regime in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq have thus far largely stayed away from this. 

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have threatened to resume attacks on ships in the region but so far have not taken such action. 

The big question is, when we get to the other side of this, what will Iran’s influence in the region look like? Its credibility has certainly taken a hit, and the regime does not look as iron-clad as it did two weeks ago. 

Both Israel and the U.S. have said a regime change is not a stated objective of the war. But could it be a by-product? Quite possibly. 

It is clear that the belief this go-around, having seen a few regime changes over the last few decades, is that if the regime falls, it must be the people of Iran who internally bring it down. 

I don’t know what the coming days, weeks or months will bring, but we are quite clearly living in a consequential moment in history. We’ll be watching closely. 

Thanks to all of you who have written in the last few days. Your words mean so much. You can continue following along on X, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok for all my updates. I can’t begin to tell you how much I value your support. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.