Is AIPAC Coming After Ilhan Omar?

A poll sent to constituents in Rep. Ilhan Omar’s district has the hallmarks of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s strategy. 

The poll, sent earlier this month, first ran through the kinds of questions typical for a campaign testing the waters. The survey started by posing positive and negative questions about Omar and Ryan Winkler, a Democrat and former Minnesota state representative, on run-of-the-mill political grounds: how would voters rate Omar’s job performance based on her voting record on affordable housing and healthcare, or Winkler’s record on minimum wage and private prison legislation?

Screenshots of survey questions about Rep. Ilhan Omar and former State Rep. Ryan Winkler The Intercept

Then the poll tipped its hand. In a series of questions about “statements critics might make about Ilhan Omar,” the survey described Omar as “one of the most anti-Israel members of Congress,” cited her voting record against a resolution that condemned the October 7 attacks without mentioning Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians, and outlined her opposition to arms sales to Israel, then asked respondents to indicate how concerned this information makes them feel.

Then it asked respondents whether Winkler being backed by “a right-wing, pro-Israel group that is funded by Trump-supporting billionaires and has endorsed dozens of Republican members of Congress who support Trump and his MAGA agenda” raises any concerns. 

Screenshots of survey questions about Rep. Ilhan Omar and former State Rep. Ryan Winkler The Intercept

Screenshots of the survey viewed by the Intercept showed no clear indication of who paid for the poll. Political operators familiar with AIPAC tacitcs, however, see the poll as a sign that AIPAC is laying the groundwork for challenging Omar in the midterm elections next year.

The group typically tests the waters by fielding polls before they commit to a race. By asking voters how they feel about Winkler even after getting the negative message that he is backed by a “right-wing, pro-Israel group” — a group like AIPAC — the group can learn whether backing him would do more harm than good in the district, and how much ground it would have to make up if voters viewed such a fact negatively.

“This is absolutely what they do,” said Usamah Andrabi, communications director for Justice Democrats, which has backed candidates who are critical of U.S. military support for Israel, including Omar. 

“They come into these districts early and poll the candidates they’ve already been talking to, that they’re already interested in, which in this case is seemingly Ryan Winkler, so they can take it back to their donors and ask for millions of dollars,” he said. “This is absolutely their playbook.”

A source familiar with the race who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity confirmed from multiple sources that AIPAC is planning to be active in targeting Omar this cycle and has been in talks with Winkler who was reportedly waiting on the results of an AIPAC poll to make his decision.

Winkler, AIPAC, and United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, did not respond to a request for comment.

The survey is the first public sign that AIPAC still has its eye on ousting progressive members of Congress who criticize U.S. military funding for Israel and Israeli human rights abuses in Palestine. AIPAC spent more than $100 million on primaries last cycle, including more than $25 million to oust Squad members Reps. Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman. The spending came from United Democracy Project and AIPAC’s regular political action committee, AIPAC PAC. In the 2020 cycle, AIPAC, endorsed more than 100 Republican members of Congress who voted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. 

“Our district has never been for sale. Special interest groups, including AIPAC, have spent millions trying to unseat me,” Omar said in a statement to The Intercept.

“If what AIPAC was lobbying for was truly popular, they wouldn’t need to spend millions to smear those they disagree with.”

“If what AIPAC was lobbying for was truly popular, they wouldn’t need to spend millions to smear those they disagree with. Voters in my district want to see leaders who are fighting to get big money out of politics, not leaders who want to see our elections turned into auctions. I have proudly earned the support of my constituents every election and plan to do so again by fighting for the people I represent, not special interests backed by Republican money.”

After its victories last cycle, AIPAC is revamping its efforts to remove every member of Congress who is critical of Israel, Andrabi of Justice Democrats said. 

“That’s the Congress that Citizens United has been building for a decade and a half now,” Andrabi said.

“A spineless Congress that only does the bidding of billionaires and corporate super PACs. I think we are seeing this cycle especially just how fed up voters are with that sort of Congress,” he said. “Democrats are more unpopular in Congress than they ever have been, and it’s because people see them as more dedicated to the bottom lines of their billionaire donors than to the livelihoods and liberties of their constituents — that’s because they see how much money is being spent in these primaries.”

“This is not just about Israel and Palestine,” Andrabi continued. “It’s really about being able to control politicians and make them do what you want. We should be opposing any lobby from being able to do that.” 

AIPAC typically runs polling in districts before it jumps into a race. Last cycle, the group officially stayed out of the Democratic primary challenge against Rep. Summer Lee, but The Intercept reported that AIPAC had tried and failed to recruit two candidates to challenge Lee. AIPAC was reportedly in contact with Bhavini Patel, who eventually decided to run against Lee, but did not officially back her. 

Part of AIPAC’s strategy is to attack candidates who are critical of Israel on other points — like claiming that Omar is antisemitic or criticizing her for calling to dismantle the Minneapolis Police Department in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd. Both of those claims appeared in the survey.

None of the survey questions specifically asked about voters’ own support for Israel’s war on Gaza, a ceasefire, or U.S. military support for Israel, both of which a growing number of Democratic voters oppose. 

“AIPAC’s number-one requirement for endorsing a candidate is how empty of a vessel can this empty suit really be?”

There’s a reason those questions weren’t in the survey, Andrabi said. The survey described Omar as “one of the most anti-Israel members of Congress” and criticized her for voting against a resolution that condemned the October 7 attacks without mentioning Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians. 

“AIPAC’s number-one requirement for endorsing a candidate is how empty of a vessel can this empty suit really be?” Andrabi said. “One consistency we can see amongst recruited primary challengers from AIPAC is they are people who don’t stand for anything, don’t believe in anything, and are most willing to be bought and sold by corporate lobbies and right-wing super PACs.” 

Other questions in the survey that nodded to AIPAC’s potential involvement painted Omar as antisemitic and asked how constituents felt about Omar’s “extreme positions.” 

“Even after being rebuked by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic leaders for her antisemitic language, Ilhan Omar has continued to take extreme positions and opposed legislation that aims to right growing anti-semitism in this country,” the survey said. (The question referred to Democrats who attacked Omar after she criticized spending by the pro-Israel lobby in U.S. elections.) Then, the survey asked respondents to rate how concerned they were about Omar as a candidate.

This is not the first time AIPAC has explored a primary challenge against Omar. During her primary challenge in 2022, AIPAC funneled $350,000 to a group backing her challenger, Don Samuels. The money was not reported until after the race. Pro-Israel donors backed Samuels in another challenge against Omar last cycle, The Intercept reported. 

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